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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Mississippi St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:87
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1173.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH96-68W100%0.0
11-18Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH79-48W100%0.0
11-20Green Bay (303.0)HorzH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndH80-75W100%0.0
11-26Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH59-56W100%0.0
11-30North Dakota St. (210.0)SumH83-59W100%0.0
12-3Dayton (146.0)A10H61-59W100%0.0
12-12Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA65-50L0%0.0
12-16Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH92-61W100%0.0
12-20Little Rock (308.0)SBH64-48W100%0.0
12-23Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAN64-70W100%0.0
12-30North Florida (218.0)ASunH109-81W100%0.0
1-2Arkansas (30.0)SECH78-75W100%0.0
1-6Mississippi (141.0)SECA64-58L0%0.0
1-10Florida (46.0)SECA71-54L0%0.0
1-13Auburn (15.0)SECH68-76L0%0.0
1-16Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH80-62W100%0.0
1-20Alabama (42.0)SECA68-62L0%0.0
1-23Kentucky (10.0)SECA78-65L0%0.0
1-27Missouri (43.0)SECH74-62W100%0.0
1-31South Carolina (90.0)SECA76-81W100%0.0
2-3Georgia (79.0)SECH72-57W100%0.0
2-6Alabama (42.0)SECH67-63W100%0.0
2-10Missouri (43.0)SECA89-85L0%0.0
2-14Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA81-80L0%0.0
2-17Mississippi (141.0)SECH79-62W100%0.0
2-20Texas A&M (29.0)SECA81-93W100%0.0
2-24South Carolina (90.0)SECH72-68W100%0.0
2-27Tennessee (8.0)SECH54-76L0%0.0
3-3LSU (95.0)SECA78-57L0%0.0
3-8LSU (95.0)SECN80-77W100%0.0
3-9Tennessee (8.0)SECN62-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi St.SEC26.1326.1363.5663.567.097.09
LSUSEC3.803.8055.1755.170.390.39
TennesseeSEC3.803.8074.1974.191.841.84
MissouriSEC3.783.7862.0762.070.910.91
AlabamaSEC3.763.7656.2556.250.470.47
MississippiSEC3.753.7536.6736.67-1.00-1.00
South CarolinaSEC3.753.7553.3353.330.250.25
VanderbiltSEC3.733.7336.6736.67-0.99-0.99
ArkansasSEC2.342.3469.7069.700.920.92
GeorgiaSEC2.342.3456.2556.250.290.29
KentuckySEC2.342.3469.7069.700.920.92
FloridaSEC2.282.2861.2961.290.520.52
AuburnSEC2.282.2877.4277.421.251.25
Texas A&MSEC2.262.2664.5264.520.660.66
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.711.7182.7682.761.121.12
North FloridaASun1.711.7137.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Tennessee MartinOVC1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
Green BayHorz1.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
Jacksonville St.OVC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
North Dakota St.Sum1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
Alabama St.SWAC1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
DaytonA101.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Little RockSB1.561.5620.6920.69-0.92-0.92
Southern MissCUSA1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2076.6776.670.110.11
MemphisAmer0.190.1961.7661.760.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.180.1882.7682.760.110.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
TempleAmer0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
UCFAmer0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.129.689.68-0.10-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
VCUA100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02